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's Covid death predictions may be downgraded by tens of thousands because the vaccines are performing better than expected against the Indian variant and the estimates were based on out of date data.<br>In papers submitted to the Government this week which [https://www.healthynewage.com/?s=ultimately%20led ultimately led] to Freedom Day being pushed back to July 19, modellers at Imperial College warned that there could 200,000 more fatalities in the UK by next June. <br>While that model looked at a 'worst-case' scenario, other universities forecasting the crisis for SAGE said it was realistic to expect 40,000 to die in that time. <br>However, the gloomiest forecasts were based on assuming that two doses of 's vaccine gave as little as 77 per cent protection against being hospitalised with the Indian 'Delta' variant. <br>They also worked on the assumption that being fully immunised with Pfizer's jab may only reduce admissions  by 84 per cent.<br><br>The groups' central assumptions had protection slightly higher.<br>But it has since emerged the vaccines perform much better against the mutant strain than any of the estimates plugged into SAGE's models.<br>Public Health England's best guess is that two doses of AstraZeneca's jab cuts the risk of hospitalisation by up to 92 per cent, while the figure for Pfizer's was even higher at 96 per cent.<br>The new vaccine efficacy estimates, based on real-world data of 14,000 Delta cases in England, were made public just minutes after SAGE's frightening forecasts were published on Monday, which led many to assume it was too late to use PHE's data in its models.<br>Yet Dr Susan Hopkins, the deputy director of PHE's national infection service, admitted to MPs yesterday that the Government knew about the figures last Friday. It suggests ministers and their scientific advisers pressed ahead with publishing the calculations, which strengthened the argument for delaying June 21, despite knowing there was more accurate data available.<br>Tory MPs have questioned why the real-world data hadn't been given precedence and have called for the models to be re-calibrated with the new estimates.<br>         The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Imperial College London and Warwick University all underestimated how well the vaccines would protect people from being hospitalised with the Indian Covid variant.<br><br>This meant their models likely overestimated the number of deaths and hospitalisations that will follow in the coming weeks and months. Public Health England's real-world analysis showed the jabs were extremely effective after two doses<br>        Warwick University's model showed there could be between 72,400 to 17,100 total deaths this summer and autumn, with daily deaths ranging from fewer than 500 per day to 3,000 depending on how well the vaccines work.<br><br>The new PHE data means these estimates will likely be too high<br>      Modelling submitted to SAGE showed how many people could die each day with the rapid spread of the Indian variant.<br><br>Warwick University researchers made their estimates (red) based on the assumption that the Indian variant is 56 per cent more transmissible, and that fully vaccinated people are given 90 per cent protection against hospital admission. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine researchers (blue) used similar figures to come to their conclusions.<br>Dotted lines number one to four show the different dates restrictions were eased<br>        Latest analysis by PHE estimates that Pfizer's vaccine slashes the risk of being hospitalised by the Indian variant by 96 per cent after two doses and AstraZeneca's jab cuts it by 92 per cent.<br><br>Previous real-world analysis by PHE found that Pfizer's jab was 97 per cent effective at preventing admissions from the Kent variant. PHE has not yet published data on AstraZeneca's effect on older strains <br>Switching to its most optimistic scenario would see Imperial's grim estimate of 203,824 deaths by next summer fall to 26,854 — but even that could be an overestimate because even in their best-case scenario, the researchers underestimated the power of the vaccines.<br>For Warwick University's models, that would mean their death estimates could fall from 72,400 to 17,100.<br><br>While the London School of Hygiene and [https://www.garnelenshop-bayern.de/Tropical Stör Tropical] Medicine said there could be 33,200 deaths in an optimistic scenario.<br>On Wednesday, MPs on the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee grilled Dr Hopkins about using out of date data in their modelling.<br>  RELATED ARTICLES                  <br><br><br><br>Share this article<br>Share<br>281 shares<br><br><br><div class="art-ins mol-factbox news halfRHS" data-version="2" id="mol-3b63c660-cf50-11eb-afdf-332163c31962" website Covid death estimates are to be reduced by tens of thousands
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Revision as of 00:59, 18 December 2021

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